Shalom all,

One can easily question whether the title of this post is valid. After all, notwithstanding that the long-standing tyrannical rule in Syria came to an end very recently, still, the country continues to exist, even though it is fragmented. This is a valid argument, at least to a point. 

What happened to our unfriendly, but relatively quiet, neighbor to our immediate northeast? A little over a decade ago, an event that was labelled the Arab Spring began in Tunisia and successfully removed oppressive leadership there and in several other countries in the Middle East, such as Libya, Yemen and Egypt. Attempts were made to also overthrow the government in Syria, which, until two week ago, was led by President Bashar al-Assad and they almost succeeded, twice, although those attempts were two-years apart. The Syrian Arab Spring quickly gave way to the Syrian winter frost, as peaceful protesters were arrested and tortured. And, as momentum increased for the release of the protesters, the Assad regime resorted to the use of its military to quell the fledgling uprisings.

It did not take long for the Syrian Arab Spring to turn into a civil war, which resulted in early losses of territory/cities to rebel forces that were opposed to the continuation of the Assad government. Within two years of the beginning of his country’s Arab Spring, Assad received assistance from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as one of Iran’s long-standing proxies, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, both of which sent its forces to back up and support Assad. By 2013, Assad’s efforts to remain in power and leadership resulted in the bombing of Syrian civilians and the use of chemical weapons against them dozens of times

Moderate rebel groups began to lose ground against more radical extremists, such as ISIS, the terrorist group that claimed a very sizeable slice of Syrian terrority and whose establishment and activities eventually resulted in direct military intervention by the United States.

Once the U.S. became involved, Russia did not sit idly by, but also became a major player in the Syrian arena. It sent various forms of military assistance to the Assad regime in its actions against the more moderate rebel groups, all the while that Iran and its proxy in Lebanon took further root in the then, war-torn country. With the help of these outside forces, excluding the U.S., Assad was able to regain and re-establish control over areas seized by rebel forces. By that time, the Syrian winter frost was in place for seven years. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the civil war proved unsuccessful.

The Syrian civil war displaced at least half of the country’s population, generating a serious humanitarian crisis. Agriculture was seriously affected and political corruption skyrocketed. A large portion of the population found refuge in neighboring Arab countries, in addition to various locations in Europe, causing a demographic and political change in those locations.  

During the last seven years, various rebel/militia continued their armed struggle against the Assad regime, sometimes gaining territory, sometimes losing it. Over a period of thirteen years, the cost in lives exceeded what anyone would have thought when the Arab Spring first began in 2011. On the whole, and notwithstanding that the fighting continued and the “opposition” controlled small, unconnected regions in the area of northwest Syria, it appeared that the Assad emerged victorious in the civil war.

Israel, of course, was not a silent by-stander to the events taking place in Syria. The major cause of concern for the Jerusalem government was the transfer of military personnel and sophisticated weaponry to Syria by Russia and Iran. More specifically, Israel took action to prevent the transfer of weapons from Iran to the Hezbollah terrorist organization, through Syria.

And then, after what seemed like an endless round of tit-for-tat fighting between the government forces of Assad and the forces of the opposition, the rebels succeeded to sweep through parts of Syria, taking control of major cities and airports within a two-week period. Government forces abandoned their positions and fled. Bashar al-Assad saw the hand-writing on the wall and fled with his family to Russia. The iron-fisted rule of the Assad family (Hafez al-Assad and Bashar al-Assad) after half a century came to an abrupt end. 

“The king is dead. Long live the king!” Can that expression apply to a situation where the king is not dead, yet, but abandoned his kingdom and took up residence in a 5-star hotel in Moscow? By stretching the interpretation, we could say that it would apply. But, that begs the question: “Who is the replacing king?” Stated differently, what will happen to / in Syria after the fall of Assad? 

Within days following the collapse of the Assad regime, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, said: 

“The transition process and new government must also uphold clear commitments to fully respect the rights of minorities, facilitate the flow of humanitarian assistance to all in need, prevent Syria from being used as a base for terrorism or posing a threat to its neighbors, and ensure that any chemical or biological weapons stockpiles are secured and safely destroyed. The Syrian people will decide the future of Syria. All nations should pledge to support an inclusive and transparent process and refrain from external interference. The United States will recognize and fully support a future Syria government that results from this process.  We stand prepared to lend all appropriate support to all of Syria’s diverse communities and constituencies.” He added: “As the President said on Sunday, ‘it would be a waste of this historic opportunity if one tyrant were toppled only to see a new one rise up in its place. So it is now incumbent upon all of the opposition groups who seek a role in governing Syria to demonstrate their commitment to the rights of all Syrians, the rule of law, and the protection of religious and ethnic minorities’.” It seems as though after all that has happened in this region over the last dozen-plus years, they still did not get a handle on the mentality of the Middle East countries surrounding Israel.

Jackson Richman, in his article for The Epoch Times, commented: “In response to a question from The Epoch Times on Dec. 10, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said that U.S. support for rebuilding Syria is ‘putting the cart before the horse…We need to see a political process play out here before we get to the discussions about reconstruction and who’s going to fund it’.”  At last, a ray of light.

The coalition of rebel forces that toppled the Assad regime was led by the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham group (“HTS”-the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant”), whose predecessor was Al Qaeda (of Osama bin-Laden fame) that dominated the Jabhat al-Nusra Front that opposed Assad. The HTS made a public split away from the terrorist organization in 2016 and focused its activities as an opposition movement to the Assad regime. The HTS is now headed up by its founder and militant leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who was formerly a member of the group that eventually became Islamic State. The Political Affairs Department of HTS announced on December 8th: “The liberation of Syria is a victory for all its sons who sacrificed for the unity of the land and the people. On this occasion, we affirm our commitment to strengthening societal unity and establishing the principles of justice and dignity among all components of Syrian society.” In my opinion, this statement of the HTS is made more for public relations purposes in an effort to find favor with the West, rather than for a genuinely planned eventuality. While the language of the announcement has a semblance of “democracy”, in all likelihood, the last thing to be expected is a democratic, secular rule that is committed “to the rights of all Syrians, the rule of law, and the protection of religious and ethnic minorities“, as expressed by President Biden. The organization maintains its Salafi-jihadist ideology and was added to the U.S. State Department’s list as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. And, it must be kept in mind that the HTS does not presently rule over all of Syria, so any statement concerning its intentions for “all its sons” is definitely premature.. 

Israel wisely took advantage of the collapse of the Assad regime and our air force effectively destroyed most of the Syrian military capability within the last few days, here and here, including chemical weapons facilities and other targets in and around the capital city of Damascus. It has also taken over full control of the buffer zone on the Golan Heights. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took credit for the collapse of the regime, saying that it was a “direct result [of the] heavy blows” inflicted on Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran by Israel and that we are “dismantling the Iranian axis piece by piece.”. The HTS rebel leader has come out with the comment that with the departure of the Iranians from Syria, Israel no longer has a reason to attack sites in Syria by the Israeli Air Force. While not an express, outward “threat”, still Israel will obviously take into consideration all statements  made by those who now appear to control Syria, whether in whole or in part. 

The Dry Bones Blog – 8 December, 2024

President Biden is also claiming credit for the fall of the Assad regime. Really?

In reality, most of the political pundits are expressing their hopes regarding the future of Syria. But, until the dust settles, and the damage and devastation that has been done to the Syrian population and economy over the last half century, the realities of life in the area of our northwestern neighbor remains speculative at best, and pessimistic at worst. Assad was the devil we knew. Israel is not taking any chances and is taking measures to protect our northern borders from the rebel militias, who for the meantime, are all looking to get their “piece of the pie”, the more the better, a situation that leaves Israel “confronted with new and unpredictable threats”.

It would be a grievous mistake if we were to ignore the possibility of outside intervention from Turkey, Qatar and even Russia, who have their various interests in the area. And Iran is slowly making inroads into Iraq, which borders on Syria, possibly looking to add Iraq to its puppetry, as a belated act of revenge for the forced ceasefire in 1988, of the Iran-Iraq War, a ceasefire that temporarily extinguished Ayatollah Khomeini’s vision of subjecting Iraq to the Islamic Revolution.

Who will be the next victim of the belated Arab Spring? Obviously Iran ranks high on the list. Others, interestingly enough could include Egypt, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, and possibly Jordan, to name just a few.

The Dry Bones Blog – 10 December, 2024

With Assad’s departure, the extent of his imprisonment, torture, execution, murder and other atrocities committed under his reign of terror, are now being exposed. The failure of the world community to raise an eyebrow during Assad’s reign of tyranny, while condemning Israel right, left and center for its actions in defending itself against ruthless enemies, reveals an incredible double standard and inexcusable hypocrisy. Take a look at Nadav Shragai’s Commentary in Israel Hayom published two days ago, who expresses the matter very clearly.

Not to be forgotten is our ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza. From all outward appearances, negotiations for the release of the hostages and ceasefire appear to be making headway. Hamas has agreed to certain key demands of Israel and has even provided, for the first time since November, 2023, a list of the first hostages to be released. Apparently, Israel is still willing to allow a staged return of the hostages, which could still end up being snagged before all of them, alive and dead, are returned.

We are approaching the seasons of Hanukkah and Christmas. Both deal with light, one physical and the other spiritual. Upon reflection of those lights, truly, there is much for which to be thankful and to remain thankful, in all things at all times.

Have a simply great, healthy and encouraging week.

Marvin