The Aftermath of the Attack on Avivim – Now What?

Is everybody happy? Well, at least on the surface of things, it would appear to be so. The Prime Minister of Lebanon, Hariri, is happy that he was able to successfully get other countries to intervene in the cross-border incident yesterday that was started from his country. He continues to try to portray himself as a moderate and a voice of reason in Lebanon. Hezbollah chief mucky-muck, Nasrallah, on the other hand, who is the furthest thing from a moderate voice in Lebanon, was able to make good on his promise to take revenge for the killing of two Hezbollah fighters in the region south of Damascus, Syria, and Israel Prime Minister, Netanyahu, was happy that the incident ended with no injuries and that Israel’s military response was both immediate and sufficient. He handled the incident yesterday in a cool and calm manner, which also helped further his image as the only player in Israeli politics who can guarantee the security of the country. So, the three of them all had reasons for being happy. Everything returned to normal last night and continues today, including the unceasing tension on the northern front.

Now what? Where do we go from here? Let’s keep in mind the real players in the incidents of the past week: Behind the plans and activities of Shiite Hezbollah terrorists are the Mullahs of Iran, who are financing their Lebanese proxy and supplying them with weaponry. They won’t give up on their program to increase in stature in the region, in power and in influence. And, more significantly, Iran will not give up on its goal to generate a multitude of precision missiles, primarily for use against Israel and particularly through its Hezbollah proxy.  On the other side of the literal border is Israel, who will not yield to Iran’s efforts at self-aggrandisement, nor to Hezbollah aggression towards Israel.

Again, where do we go from here? Nasrallah-la-la will undoubtedly thrust himself back into the limelight (when he comes out from hiding in his bunker to speak) and take credit for standing good on his promise. He’ll boast of the heroism of the Hezbollah and invent a few “facts” along the way, that may include injury to IDF personnel, in addition to causing serious damage to property of the IDF. Indeed, only an hour or so before preparing this post, a reporter for the Hezbollah said that the celebrations that were taking place in Beirut were because of the “victory over the Israeli enemy”, adding that  the “Hezbollah has changed the equation [and] now Israel is the one who is deterred.” Nu, this spin on reality is what can be expected by an enemy who starts a fight and then asks other to intervene to stop it, when the one it attacked fights back!

On the Israeli end, by God’s grace, there were no injuries, civilian or military. In this regard, we received a report from a member of our congregation, who was serving with the IDF in the area of Avivim yesterday, when the Hezbollah fired anti-tank missiles to the abandoned military outpost in that area. She reported that three missiles were fired at a military ambulance in which she and others were present, adding: “My team and I were in this ambulance. By God’s grace we were able to get out healthy and whole. This was truly simply a miracle that happened there! God is great!”

Israel accomplished what it wanted to do, both earlier in the week as well as in yesterday’s incident, revealing once again its ability to pinpoint the targets and eliminate them.  A senior military source said that the IDF “carried out simultaneous attacks in Syria and other areas”, as it was necessary to take such action within a limited time frame. That source added that the IDF acted “as precisely in as many arenas as we planned, including in that possible enemy reactions. We are prepared for war but do not need it, as the event we carried out in Lebanon proved.” Thus, although prepared for continued and wider and widening military action, Israel was also satisfied that yesterday’s events ended quickly and that things were able to return to “normal”. 

So, Iran is determined and will not walk away from a seeming setback in its ability to manufacture precision weapons. Nasrallah-la-la and his sizeable band of terrorists will continue to threaten Israel until push comes to shove and they will need to put their people to the test. Israel will not stand by, as it did not stand by, and allow either of them to manufacture precision weapons for use against Israel and to do so within a short striking distance in Syria or Lebanon. Israel may have to go beyond surgical strikes to demonstrate that such aggressive action planned against Israel comes with a price to pay. We should be careful not to think that “returning to normal” is the end of the story of yesterday’s incident. Realistically, it could be the beginning of a new one.

The efforts to manufacture of precision weaponry for use by Iran or the Hezbollah necessitated a re-directed planning by Israel how to deal with the threat of such missiles. Next to the problem of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, the manufacture and potential use of them now appears to rank second in the list of concerns of the Israel military establishment, particularly in “the northern front”. Additional concerns remain preventing Iran from gaining a solid foothold in enemy countries in the region, both to our immediate north and northeast, as well as to the southeast. Accordingly, Israel’s plans need to encompass all of those areas for multi-front engagement, if and when the time comes. As one senior security source stated: “In light of developments and situation assessments, it was decided three months ago that the precision missile project would be given high priority, because of the immediate danger it poses. The military echelons were informed of this decision…We cannot afford to be surrounded by thousands of precision missiles that could land and harm the State of Israel.”

Yes, we’re happy. Because this is a day that the LORD has made. We WILL rejoice and be glad in it.

“To God belong wisdom and power; counsel and understanding are his.” (Job 12:13)

“Give [our leadership] wisdom and knowledge, that [it] may lead this people, for who is able to govern this great people of yours?” (2 Chronicles 1:10)

Bless, be blessed and be a blessing.

Marvin

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