What’s more important: Who is leaving the Office of the President of the United States, or who is entering it? The answer really depends on who is being asked the question – Americans, Israelis, “Palestinians”, Iran, China, the European Union and a host of other nations, individuals and entities that were and/or will be affected by the turnover.

America voted for Joseph R. Biden to replace Donald J. Trump as President of the United States. At least that’s the way things turned out when all of the controversy was over or is believed to be over. A majority of Israelis were appreciative of Trump, favoring him to win over Biden. “Palestinians” (so-called) were/are hoping that the Biden administration will reassess and reverse the policies of the Trump administration vis-a-vis relations between them and the U.S. government. Iran was/is looking forward to dealing with the new king of the Hill . . . and so on. Some danced in the streets. Others felt that the inauguration ceremony signaled an American retreat to the Obama era, phase II.

Much could be said for each location and an extensive discussion could be undertaken with reasons for and against the outgoing and the incoming. But, the focus of this post is not to delve into multifaceted discussions on a multinational level, but to consider, even if briefly, potential ramifications and ripples of the changeover, as they affect or may affect Israel. 

Trump was popular in Israel. The simple reason is that he acted to strengthen the recognition of Israel as a sovereign, active player on the world’s stage and because of the decisions made affecting Israel’s security. He promised to move the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and did it, with other nations following suit. Almost two years ago, he proclaimed U.S. recognition of the Golan Heights as belonging to the State of Israel. In the closing months of his presidency, Trump’s administration was instrumental in moving forward at least four agreements between Israel and some of the Arab countries in the region, with other, potential agreements that did not reach completion prior to his leaving office. Perhaps the most significant act was to withdraw the U.S. from the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action”, commonly referred to as the “Iran nuclear deal”. Of course, there were other things, such as putting economic pressure on Iran and continuing to supply Israel with state-of-the-art weaponry. From the point of view of support, the relationship between Israel and the United States can only be seen as having been positive and encouraging. Even the “Deal of the Century”, which failed in principle, ended up achieving no small degree of success, indirectly, resulting in the signing of the Abraham Accords. As stated in an Op-ed in Arutz Sheva earlier this week: “For most of the Israeli right, U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-Israel legacy will outlive other elements of his controversial presidency, particularly his last days in office….” The writer, who presented differing views concerning the outgoing President, also quoted Yishai Fleisher, an American-born international spokesperson for the Jewish community of Hebron: “It took a man who was not the norm, not a career politician, not a regular ‘dude’—a dude that came from being a mogul, media guy and just a character—to break a lot of the calcified lies that we’ve lived with.” Whether one appreciates Trump or despises him, his Middle-East record speaks for itself.

While  the Trump administration benefitted Israel, Iran, its proxies in the Middle East, and especially the “Palestinians” were experiencing an ongoing nightmare.  After Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel less than a year after he took office, the “PA” cut off all contact with his administration. But, its action brought re-action by the U.S. Among other things, the Washington office of the PLO was closed. Financial assistance to the “PA” was halted. Two years ago, the American Consulate in East Jerusalem was closed. They looked forward to the hope-for changes that would be brought about by the Biden administration. It would be reasonable to believe that the “PA” is not expecting changes to take place overnight and that it recognizes that the priority for the Biden administration will be to deal with the national health crisis and other international concerns. Still, “PA” activists nevertheless are hoping that the Biden administration will bring about a renewed relationship with the “Palestinians” and reverse the above-mentioned setbacks that they suffered under Trump. 

Biden backs the two-state solution resolve the Israeli-“Palestinian” conflict. The “PA” is banking on that and will undoubtedly make every effort to raise itself from the ash heap and re-involve the U.S., Russia, the European Union and the United Nations – the organization that is anything other than united, except when it comes to condemning Israel for continuing to exist. As stated by the “PA” Foreign Minister only one month ago: “We are ready for cooperation and dealing with the new US administration, and we are expecting that it would re-draw its ties with the state of Palestine.” That, in a nutshell, says it all, at least for the “Palestinians”.

According to published reports, Biden has a long-standing, positive relationship with the Jewish community, although there have been severe policy differences going back almost 40 years over the settlements in Judea and Samaria and continuing with P.M. Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Biden is expected to act quickly to deal with the various crises presently afflicting the U.S. But, once he settles into his new role as leader of the free world, it will, indeed, be a new day dawning. If Biden’s administration pushes for restoration of the Iran nuclear deal, it could cause a rift in the relationship that the U.S. has with Israel and reestablish the political cloud that existed between the two countries during the Obama days, during which Biden served as Vice-President. The most outstanding critic of the Iran deal was Israeli P.M. Netanyahu, who called it an “historic mistake”. The priority of his administration was to impress upon the world the urgency to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Any action that gives Iran the impression that the U.S. is trying to restore friendly relations with it, for whatever reason, will be an encouragement to Iran that it can pursue its goal against Israel under the guise or “disguise” of a revised nuclear agreement. In this regard, Biden nominated as Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, lead negotiator of the Iran deal under the Obama era. Jonathan S. Tobin, JNS Editor-in-Chief, stated this week: “By any objective standard, Sherman’s handiwork [referring to her 2015 negotiating efforts] was a disaster. A government that was a merciless tyranny at home, a threat to the stability of neighboring Arab states and pledged to Israel’s destruction had been enriched and empowered.” Any attempt to reengage with Tehran will require walking a political tightrope between wooing Iran back to the negotiating table without damaging U.S. relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, or exacerbating the political rift at home that Biden desires to heal. He has his work cut out for him.

Adding the possibility of a renewed political relationship between the U.S. and the “Palestinians” to the already existing concerns of the U.S. renegotiating the Iran nuclear deal, will restore the cloud of uncertainty to Israel’s efforts to create a new, peaceful Middle East with countries opposed to Iran’s efforts at hegemony. The Biden administration will try to make its own, new friends, possibly at the expense of some of the old friends of the Trump administration. Problematic in this regard is the designation of the U.S. Ambassador to Israel appeared on Twitter as the “U.S. Ambassador to Israel, the West Bank and Gaza”. The reason for the concern is that at the present time, diplomatic relations with the “PA” dwindled to almost non-existent and need to be renewed. In addition, for the U.S. to appoint an Ambassador to Gaza, diplomatic relations need to be established with Gaza, which is controlled by the terrorist organization, Hamas. Apparently, after considerable outrage to the new designation was expressed over social media, “the West Bank and Gaza” were removed from the title, without explanation, leaving only “U.S. Ambassador to Israel.” Is this an early indication of what is on the horizon? May it never be! But, time will tell whether the decisions of the Biden administration will be beneficial for Israel or not. 

What kind of leader will Joe Biden be? Will he laud it over the people, or will he say, “Follow me?”

The mind of man plans his way, But the LORD directs his steps. (Proverbs 16:9) 

For the eyes of the LORD move to and fro throughout the earth that He may strongly support those whose heart is completely His. (2 Chronicles 16:9)

If a ruler pays attention to falsehood, All his ministers become wicked. (Proverbs 29:12)

Remember: Bless, be blessed and be a blessing.

Marvin