Shalom all,

Israel Update – Day 46 of the War.

As of this update, the number the IDF death toll since the beginning of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip is 68. From the 7th of October until now, 390 members of the IDF have been killed.

Words have meaning: An article appearing in The Times of Israel (TTOI) news feed at 4:04 p.m. today, two perspectives are represented by the words “very optimistic”. The news feed states:

Qatar says it is “very optimistic” on finalizing a deal to release dozens of hostages from Israel held by terrorists in Gaza since October 7.

Dr. Majed Al Ansari, the spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, says in a post on X: “We are working towards an agreement taking place and we are now at the closest point we ever have been in reaching and an agreement. We are very optimistic, we are very hopeful, but we are also very keen for this mediation to succeed in reaching a humanitarian truce.” (Emphasis in both paragraphs mine)

Same words, but different focus. The understanding and emphasis of TTOI is the release of the hostages. The understanding and emphasis of Qatar is reaching a truce. Yes, words have meaning and should be understood in the context in which those words appear and, who is speaking.

The IDF trained for the scenario that took place in the Gaza envelope…only in the wrong place. A month before the invasion of Hamas, the IDF trained for a possible terrorist incursion and attack of border communities, as well as the blocking of main roads that would hinder the arrival of reinforcements. But, the training was for a scenario in the north, by the Hezbollah, not in the south, by Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Believing that the Gaza border was secure, the IDF sent elite units to the north and prepared for invading terrorists from Israel’s northern border. There was a seeming justification for that action. A significant buildup of Hezbollah forces took place near the Lebanon-Israel border, in a blatant violation of UN Resolution 1701 that was passed following the Second Lebanon War in 2006. About 30 military posts and observation towers were set up by Hezbollah prior to the war in Gaza, many of which have since been destroyed by the IDF. It was believed that after getting “hands on” experience in the Syrian civil war, the al-Hajj Radwan commando force was looking for action against Israel. This is a significant part of the Hezbollah human arsenal, with some 2,500 members. 

Only five weeks before the massacre by Hamas, the Radwan force was doing simulated attacks upon Israeli communities, taking hostages, shooting up everything “Israeli” in sight, using motorcycles, weaponry and unmanned aircraft. According to Orna Mizrachi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies: “[The Radwan] unit’s aim is to infiltrate Israel and conquer swaths of the Galilee…Their exercise last week showed that that’s exactly what they’re striving for. They wish to penetrate Israeli territory with captured vehicles, take over a community, hoist up their flag and declare their success.” With an almost prescient understanding of events soon to take place, she added: “I believe that the convergence of fronts is a new development that has become more prominent in recent years…Iran’s support for forces in Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon is increasing, and it may lead to a war with multiple fronts. Iran is leading a comprehensive resistance front, involving not only the Shia axis but also the Palestinian factions in Gaza backed by Iran. The objective is to challenge the IDF and open simultaneous fronts, although Hezbollah has never directly engaged in conflict with Israel alongside the Palestinians…Hezbollah is a state within a state….” (emphasis mine)

Denials and lies:The IDF has consistently maintained that the  al-Shifa hospital served as a base for Hamas activities. Hamas has repeatedly denied it and various nations have claimed that there is no proof of the IDF’s claims. The scenes displayed by the videos cameras inside the hospital, that went viral, was photographic evidence of Hamas’s lies. Now, one of Hamas’s own, home-bread terrorists, revealed that Hamas terrorists disguised themselves as medical staff in the hospital, buttressing Israel’s allegations of war crimes by Hamas, by using medical institutions for terrorist purposes.

A short while ago, the government approved the hostage deal, according to which Hamas will release 50 live hostages (8 out of 13 mothers and another 12 female senior citizens, as well as 30 of the 40 children hostages), in exchange for Israel’s releases 140 female prisoners and minors, including terrorists, but not those convicted of murder. That is a technical statement, to get around releasing terrorists responsible for incidents where Israelis have been killed, but for one reason or another, they were not actually convicted of murder. They will be released after the Israeli hostages are returned. 

According to the various reports, the hostages will be released in 4 stages over a period of 4 days (12-13 per day) during a daily ceasefire of 6 hours. The ceasefire will go into effect when the first Israeli returns. Israel will agree to further pauses in the fighting one additional day for every additional 10 hostages that are released. 

Considering the nature of the beast that Israel was negotiating with, it would be reasonable to expect that Hamas will take full advantage of the ceasefires to booby-trap installations, facilities and other locations in Gaza, to move its personnel and try to cause Israel to violate the ceasefire. Hamas really doesn’t care whether its people are released or not. Its goal is to embarrass Israel and to defeat it, psychologically and militarily.

The agreement also includes a condition demanded by Yehya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, that during the 6-hour ceasefires, Israel will halt its UAVs in the Gaza airspace. An Israeli official addressed this particular condition and said that according to the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel’s security service), even during the ceasefires, Israel will still have intelligence gathering capabilities. “We will not be blind and we’ll know what’s happening on the ground.”

During the times of the ceasefire only, Israel will also allow more fuel to be brought into the Gaza Strip. And, to wrap up the main points, Hamas will notify Israel one day in advance which hostages will be released the following day.

This deal is a public relations victory for Yehya Sinwar, the head of Hamas. Israel is beginning to pay the price for the return of the hostages. The price will only increase during the next set of negotiations.

P.M. Netanyahu, Minister of Defense Yoav Galant and former head of the IDF, Benny Gantz, all indicated that the return of the hostages is our primary, moral obligation, and that after the ceasefires, the war will continue until Israel achieves all of its goals.

What about the families whose loved ones WILL NOT be released as part of this deal? Some women will be released while their husbands will remain in the hands of Hamas. A child might be released, but his older brother or sister will still be held hostage. A mother will be released, but her son or daughter in the IDF will not. 

Some members of the IDF were interviewed by war correspondents during the last few days. Their motivation was high and most of those interviewed said that they did not intend to leave Gaza until the job was done. They were fighting for the release of ALL of the hostages. How will they react to the orders to “fight, then take a 6-hour break, then get back to fighting?”

The anger and anguish of the families that existed before this deal is expected to increase. After the release of the hostages that are part of this deal, will their families and friends continue to join the others in the demonstrations for the release of ALL of the remaining, close to 200, hostages?

This deal is difficult and painful. Not all of the families are happy that Israel agreed to the release of terrorists and that only a partial release of hostages was agreed to. We made that mistake a number of times, one of which resulted in freeing Yehya Sinwar. I’m happy for the families who will receive their loved ones back as part of this deal, but continue to agonize with the families whose hope is deferred.

The Dry Bones Blog – 15 November, 2023

We need to continue to pray. Yehya Sinwar continues to gloat over the massacre that was committed at his direction. He will also claim victory over the embarrassment that he is causing to Israel by setting the terms for the release of the hostages and the pace of the release. Most of those taken by Hamas, as well as by Islamic Jihad and others will remain hostages for an unknown period of time. The nation will continue to agonize. And the war…is far from over. We got over Pharaoh, we’ll get over this!

O Israel, trust in the LORD; He is their help and their shield. (Psalm 115:9)

Wisdom is better than weapons of war (Ecclesiastes 9:18)

“When Your people go out to battle against their enemy, by whatever way You shall send them, and they pray to the LORD toward the city which You have chosen and the house which I have built for Your name, then hear in heaven their prayer and their supplication, and maintain their cause.” (1 Kings 8:44-45)

Help us, LORD, to keep our eyes on Him who is invisible, the Holy One of Israel, who longs to be gracious to us.

Bless, be blessed and be a blessing.

Marvin