A Ceasefire Before Ramadan? Maybe … Maybe Not.

Shalom all,

The number of IDF deaths since the beginning of the ground offensive has now reached 242. The total number of IDF deaths since October 7th stands at 582. The number of hostages still held by Hamas and other terrorists is still estimated at around 130+, without knowing how many, and who, are still alive.To say that this was not an easy week for Israel would be a classic understatement. 

The Gaza War remains one of the central news items for the world. Most people who like to refer to themselves as “journalists” continue to look for every opportunity to slam Israel for every evil under the sun. And, if they can’t find facts to back their claims, they’ll make them up. After almost five months of war against an immoral and heartless terrorist organization, most anti-Israel news sites have either completely ignored the events that triggered the fighting in the first place, or add a one or two-line summary about the day that witnessed the worst massacre perpetrated against Israel since its founding and the severest one-day slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust.

But, we haven’t forgotten the events of Black Saturday, which have been so severe and created such a national trauma that we refer to matters as being either before, or after, October 7th. The Gaza War has seen significant Israeli military successes. Even if the cowardly leadership of Hamas managed to escape from the Gaza enclave via the massive tunnel infrastructure that has become a city under a city, still, if some sources are to be believed, Israel needs only a few more weeks to dismantle the operational ability of Hamas. The thought of continuing the fighting in Gaza for “a few more weeks” is causing much of the world community to take tranquilizers, in anticipation the Muslim month of Ramadan, which is set to begin on March 10th. 

As usual, the pressure is on Israel to effectuate a ceasefire before the onset of Ramadan, either through reaching an agreement with Hamas, or unilaterally as a humanitarian gesture, to avoid anticipated mass riots around the Temple Mount area and elsewhere. Why isn’t there international pressure exerted against Hamas? Not so much to enter an agreement with Israel, but to return the hostages being held by it and by Islamic Jihad and various individual, “unaffiliated” Gazans, who are holding some of those who were abducted on October 7th. The finger pointing is against Israel.

In the midst of trying to eliminate Hamas control over Gaza and to dismantle its military capability, a disaster took place in Gaza that could only be described as a nightmare for Israel. In the early hours of this past Thursday, dozens of Gazans died while trying to get to trucks delivering humanitarian aid to the enclave. Hamas was quick to accuse the IDF of massacring over 100 civilians, which Israel claimed that dozens died by trampling each other. The IDF said that the 30 or so aid trucks were driven by private contractors, who ran over some of the Gazans. The IDF fired warning shots in the air and shot at the legs of some of those who were moving towards Israeli troops, and estimated that fewer than 10 of the casualties were the result of Israeli fire. An aerial view of the event can be seen here.  

As with all of the figures reported by Hamas, or the Gaza Health Department that is controlled by Hamas, the alleged figures could not be independently confirmed. There is little doubt that the event could affect the continuation of the present hostage release / ceasefire talks. CNN referred to the event as “one of the worst single tragedies to occur during Israel’s war with Hamas … after scores of Palestinians were killed trying to access food aid in Gaza City…” Note that the article says that they “were killed”, not that they “died”. There is a world of difference between the two expressions. The news site referred to figures issued by the “Palestinian Ministry of Health”, notwithstanding that CNN was not able to independently confirm the numbers. The article concluded with a comment by U.S. President Joe Biden, who said that “there are two competing versions of what happened” and that his administration was looking the matter. When asked whether the incident would complicate negotiations, Biden’s response was, “Oh, I know it will”, but he still was optimistic that a hostage release / ceasefire deal could be reached soon.

It didn’t take long for the members of the UN Security Council to consider a resolution drafted by Algeria to blame Israel for the events that resulted in Thursday’s deaths. Of the 15 member states comprising the Security Council, 14 of them voted in favor of the resolution. The 15th is the United States, who vetoed the Resolution. Robert Wood, the Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. was quoted as saying“We don’t have all the facts on the ground – that’s the problem.”  The implication in the last three words are that the U.S. might have voted in favor of the Resolution , which called for the members of the Security Council to “express deep concern on reports stating that over 100 individuals have lost their lives, with approximately 750 others sustaining injuries due to opening fire by Israeli forces”. According to the same JNS site, “Drone footage of the incident shows a large rush of Gazans swarming the convoy, which was attempting to deliver needed aid under challenging circumstances.”

A news feed from Sky News a few hours earlier today reported“Israel and Hamas have agreed on the duration of a truce and hostage and prisoner releases, they told Reuters. The sources said talks are due to resume in Cairo tomorrow. That leaves mediators a week to try to secure a deal before 10 March, the start of Ramadan – a date by which Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz said the IDF would launch an offensive in Rafah if Hamas did not release its hostages.”

Notwithstanding reports that negotiations are to resume tomorrow, a senior Israeli official reported today that “no Israeli delegation will participate unless Hamas provides the names of the hostages still alive.”  Such a demand should have been made by Israel at the outset of the first set of negotiations. We still are allowing a terrorist organization to dictate terms of the hostage release, ceasefire and prisoner release, which be conducted in stages. This war could have ended a long time ago if all of the hostages were released at one time. We could have pursued Yahya Sinwar at any other time. The price that Israel is willing to pay for partial releases of the hostages is exorbitant. According to the Jerusalem Post, the Egyptian Foreign Minister said, in part: “We cannot say that we have reached an understanding in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas yet.” The article added that Egypt was insisting on “sticking to the course of the deal agreed upon in Paris, which includes a 40-day pause in all military operations and the exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages at a ratio of 10 to one.” The draft of the Paris deal also states, in part, that “Hamas would free 40 Israeli hostages, including women, children under 19, elderly over 50, and the sick, while Israel would release around 400 Palestinian prisoners and will not re-arrest them.” And so, the devil continues to dictate terms and Israel continues to give in to them. There is something egregiously wrong with this picture. We are succeeding on the battlefield, despite the loss of lives of members of the IDF, but we are compromising at the negotiating table. Hamas just needs to sit and wait it out for international pressure to force Israel to unilaterally end the war.

Also, earlier this week, the government of the “Palestinian” Authority resigned and its resignation was accepted by the present President, Mahmoud Abbas. This move, apparently, is intended as an initial step towards the establishment for a new “Palestinian” government to comes into place “the day after” the war ends. According to The Wall Street Journal,  “The move falls short of changes Western and Arab governments have pressured the Palestinian Authority to make, including replacing longtime career politicians with a technocratic team and for Mahmoud Abbas, the authority’s unpopular, 88-year-old president, to step aside and invest a new prime minister with some of the president’s powers.”

However, as noted by Khaled Abu Toameh, writing for the Gatestone Institute“The sole way to “revitalize” the Palestinian Authority is to insist that it rid itself of every leader who has failed his people and who remains in power, disregarding the will and interests of the people. That is hardly likely, at least not in the foreseeable future. No one is willingly going to forego perks and power. There is no way that Abbas or any of his senior aides are voluntarily going to step down….Only a new and fresh leadership committed to reforms, democracy, and transparency has a chance of leading the Palestinians towards a better life. Sadly, leaders with such a portfolio are hard to come by in the West Bank and Gaza Strip….Any leader who comes through the US or Israel will be accused by Palestinians of being a traitor and collaborator with the enemies of the Palestinian people….The assumption that 88-year-old PA President Mahmoud Abbas will step down or agree to share power with others is a non-starter. Abbas, who was elected in 2005, is now in the 19th year of a four-year term. He has already proven that he does not care what others say about him. Recent public opinion polls have shown that up to 80% of the Palestinians want him to resign. So what? The polls have also shown that a majority of the Palestinians believe that the PA is corrupt. So what? Abbas has also proven that he prefers to consult only with two or three of his loyalist officials. Since he came to power, Abbas has been controlling the Palestinian Authority as if it were a private fiefdom.” And THIS is what the U.S. and Western nations expect will become part of the new government of the so-called “Palestinian” people when the Gaza War is over? Truly, what is needed is not new governments, but new leaders, with new mindset.

The Dry Bones Blog – 27 February, 2024

While writing this post, a report came in that an additional 3 members of the IDF were killed, and another 14 were wounded, when a device exploded in a booby-trapped building in Khan Younis, bringing the IDF death toll since the Gaza ground operation to 245. More young lives (19, 19 and 20) lost, more military funerals, more grieving families, more wounded, 4 of them seriously, meaning that they may have lost one or more limbs or organs. These soldiers faithfully served to eliminate the continuing terrorist threats to Israel and to find and release the remaining hostages. Y’hee zihram’ baruch! (May their memories be blessed!)

The news this week was filled with different opinions on a variety of different subjects: There were calls for “no more ceasefires”; calls for a “one-state solution”, with “Palestinians” being made permanent residents of Israel, but having no right to vote in national elections; challenges to the figures cited by the U.S. Secretary of Defense, who relied upon numbers from the Gaza Health Department that is controlled by Hamas; claims that the U.S. is showing weakness via-a-vis the Houthis, which emboldens them and allows them to act with impunity; terror attacks on Israelis inside Samaria; and that the Hamas invasion of October 7th was actually stolen from the plans of the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon. There is, of course, the “bad news”, of wars, threats of wars and rumors of wars. There is also ongoing news about the upcoming U.S. elections, with the possibility of a Biden-Trump rematch. Is America ready for that? Is the world ready for that? Noting that a recent Reuters polls showed that 2 out of 3 Americans wanted someone new, one writer suggested that if we are looking for an ideal candidate, we should consider Moses for President. But, can such a person be found in America? The author concludes: “So, as tempting as it may seem to fill out a protest write-in ballot for Moses, we will only have ourselves to blame should our troubled world take a turn to even greater upheaval. Still, it sure would be nice if whoever gets elected tries to emulate Moses, who enduringly models the noblest traits of leadership.” May it be true for the U.S. May it be true for Israel. May it be true for the rest of the nations. 

Against all this, we cannot lose hope. One day, one greater than Moses will rule and reign. Isaiah said that: “He will judge between the nations, and will mediate for many peoples; and they will beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning knives. Nation will not lift up a sword against nation, and never again will they learn war.” (Isaiah. 2:4) Now THAT will, indeed, be “good news” that everyone will be able to rejoice over and appreciate. But, until then …

Bless, be blessed and be a blessing.

Have a simply great, and God-honoring, week.

Marvin

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