Shalom all,

The IDF death toll since the beginning of the ground offensive in late October has now reach 293. The total number of IDF deaths from all fronts since October 7th now stands at 645.

Two big events occurred this week, one at the beginning of the week and one at the end. The first occurred this past Sunday, when it was reported by the Hamas-controlled health ministry that at least 45 were killed as a result of an Israeli air strike “on a camp for displaced Palestinians” in the city of Rafah (Rafiah) in southern Gaza. While confirming that an airstrike took place, the IDF said that its strike targeted Hamas officials, which was a legitimate target under international law. A fire erupted as a result of the strike that spread to a displaced persons camp and resulted in civilian casualties.

The international media jumped all over the story, criticized Israel and renewed calls for a ceasefire. However, it appears that the IDF’s action was, indeed, limited in scope and that the deaths were not the results of an IDF strike on the displaced-persons camp, but due to explosions and secondary explosions following the targeted and precise airstrike that took place outside of the protected civilian zone established by Israel, and that the two Hamas officials who were killed “were responsible for orchestrating and executing terror attacks against Israelis”. This finds support in a conversation between two Gazans about the airstrike that was recorded by the IDF. One of the speakers confirms that the place that was targeted by the IDF was actually an ammunition warehouse and that secondary explosions were responsible for the damage.

The second major event took place yesterday, in a speech by U.S. President Joe Biden. The full text of the speech can be seen here and included the sentence: “It’s time for this war to end and for the day after to begin.” As I read the speech, I couldn’t help wondering whether his comment was a wishful statement or a question disguised as a statement. I was expecting that his speech would contain a few more specifics regarding the different phases mentioned. However, only generalities were mentioned and, apparently, the details are not being released, at least at this time, most likely in order not to endanger the release of some of the hostages. Although the focal point of the speech was the ceasefire, Biden made a point of saying that it was a “comprehensive new proposal” offered by Israel, which was backed by the U.S., making it more difficult for Hamas to reject it. In this regard, the Arab “negotiators” were also constrained to support it. More for political reasons than from an outright desire to accept what was now being offered, Hamas said that it had a “positive view” of the possible deal, a nice way of trying to buy time to come back with an alternative proposal, as it did a couple of weeks ago. It added that it was willing to “deal positively and constructively with any proposal based on a permanent ceasefire, full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, reconstruction, the return of the displaced to all their places of residence, and the completion of a serious prisoner exchange deal.” Note the specificity of their demands, which will become problematic at some point, particularly the “serious prisoner exchange deal”.

From the content of the speech, the proposal did not seem to be very different from what was offered two weeks ago and rejected, after Hamas tried to change the text of the agreement in major areas. There may be a few minor differences between the proposal then and the one now. I’ve already given my perspective on what was previously submitted, so won’t add at present what might only be speculative responses.

Notwithstanding its “positive view” comment, Hamas made clear that the speech “lacked” a few essentials, such as the American guarantee that the war would be completely over. For Israel’s part, the Office of the Prime Minister issued two releases following President Biden’s speech. The first was: “The Prime Minister authorized the negotiating team to present a proposal to that end, which would also enable Israel to continue the war until all its objectives are achieved, including the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities. The actual proposal put forward by Israel, including the conditional transition from one phase to the next, allows Israel to uphold these principles.” The second was that Israel is sticking to its principle goals in the war, noting: “Israel’s condition for ending the war have not changed: The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring the Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel…Under the proposal, Israel will continue to insist these conditions are met before a permanent ceasefire is put in place. The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter.“ Apparently, the second press release was necessary to remove any possible interpretation of Biden’s speech that Israel would consent to Hamas remaining in power after the end of the war. 

While Biden’s speech was disappointing in some respects, it nevertheless exhibited before the international community that Israel was demonstrating both a willingness and a flexibility to end the war, giving a much-needed boost to the legitimacy of the Netanyahu-led government.

It should be noted that Biden also claimed that the Israeli proposal was a realistic possibility, claiming that Israel has effectively weakened Hamas, so that it can no longer repeat the atrocities of October 7th. That statement, of course, is the perspective of the U.S., not of Israel, which would be hard-pressed to agree to it, in light of the continued rocket fire launched into Israel from Gaza. We also cannot ignore the reality that Hamas would reject any deal that calls for the release of all hostages, both living and dead, without the assurance that it would continue its control over Gaza, a situation which both Israel and U.S. regard as an unsupportable position. Take another look at the above-quoted demands made by Hamas – they certainly do not sound like they are coming from a weakened or defeated terrorist organization.

Other individuals and organizations have chimed in, following President Biden’s speech. Essentially, they espoused their political agendas, some of which go far afield, and do not add anything concrete to the present situation. 

And so for now, we wait for the official response of Hamas to the Israeli proposal. We’ll relate to the fallout of that response later.

And then there is the growing recognition of “Palestinian” statehood that does not include Israel’s participation. The argument that such recognition will generate a stable Middle East and facilitate peace ignores realities on the ground, particularly as they have existed since 1948, and even before that. Unilateral recognition, without Israel’s involvement, would be, among other things, violation of approved Resolutions of the U.N. Security Council. See, “The dangers of premature recognition of a Palestinian state”.

We all look forward to the return of all of the hostages and to an end of this war. But, the concern is not to end this war, only to wait until the next one starts, with the same enemies. If Hamas remains in power in the Gaza Strip, it will only be a matter of time before we are at war with it again.

As an important aside, you might want to take a look at how Hamas abuses its own people in Gaza. <https://worldisraelnews.com/watch-this-is-how-hamas-abuses-its-own-people/>

Finally, not to be forgotten and notwithstanding all the political puff to the contrary, the likelihood of all-out war, soon, with the Hezbollah terrorist organization, is a growing concern. All in all, we are facing seven fronts right now. Missiles from the Hezbollah fell in the neighborhood where my relatives live, in the city of Acco, only 25 minutes from us. Fervent prayer for Divine intervention would be much appreciated.

As we begin a new week, bless, be blessed and be a blessing.

Marvin