Shalom all,
We are at day 218 of the Gaza War. The number of IDF deaths since the beginning of the ground offensive has now reached 271. The total number of IDF deaths since October 7th stands at 619. We still don’t know how many hostages are still alive or who they are.
Negotiations for the release of the hostages: Earlier this past week, Hamas gave the impression that it was all set to resume the negotiations for the release of the hostages and indicated that it made only “insignificant” modifications to the Israeli proposal that was passed on to the terrorist organization by Egyptian mediators. After pretending that it was in favor of moving those negotiations forward, it said that the ball was now in Israel’s court and quickly accused Israel of being the deal breaker when Israel rejected the modifications that Hamas made to the proposal.
However, once the Israeli proposal and the changes made/request by Hamas are placed side-by-side, it becomes readily apparent why Israel’s rejection was both reasonable and understandable. A few of them are inserted here for illustration.
Israeli Proposal | Hamas Changes |
First Stage A 40-day ceasefire and phased withdrawal of the IDF from parts of the Gaza Strip to restore a “sustainable calm” | First Stage – a 12-week ceasefire; the proposal was referred to as a “framework agreement…[that] aims for…a return to sustainable calm in a way that achieves a permanent ceasefire” – a permanent ceasefire before any of the live hostages are released |
Release of 33 living hostages that includes: female civilians and soldiers; children under the age of 19; the elderly, sick and wounded, 3 every 3 days throughout a period of 33 days; on the 34th day, Hamas would be required to provide a list of all remaining hostages, who meet the criteria for release | Release of 33 living or dead hostages, most of whom would be released only after the ceasefire was in existence for a month; 3 hostages on the 3rd day of the cease fire and 3 additional hostages every 7 days (total 21 hostages over 73 days) |
Israel would retain a veto that would allow it to reject the release of security prisoners that Hamas wants released during the first 40 days of the deal | Israel’s right to veto the release of security prisoners selected by Hamas was removed from the proposal |
For each female civilian and child released during this first stage, Israel would release 20 “Palestinian” security prisoners and minors | Hamas increased the number of prisoners to be released. |
For the release of every sick, elderly and injured hostage, Israel would release 20 prisoners over the age of 50, who are also sick and injured, provided that such prisoners are not serving a sentence of more than 10 years. | Hamas increased the number of prisoners to be released. |
For the release of every female soldier, Israel would release 20 “Palestinian” prisoners serving a life sentence, as well as another 20 serving at most a 10-year sentence. Those prisoners would be released either to Gaza or abroad. | Hamas increased the number to be released and added a demand for the release of all “Palestinian” security prisoners who were freed as part of the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner deal (when move than 1,000 security prisoners were released, including Yahya Sinwar, for one Israeli soldier) and have since been rearrested by Israel. |
On the 7th day of the deal, Hamas would provide the names of all other living hostages beyond the first 33 to be released. | Hamas terms in this regard not available |
Israel will allow the return of Gazans back to the north of the Gaza Strip, subject to Israeli security checks to insure that Hamas gunmen from infilitrating back to the north, with no aerial surveillance for 8 hours a day and for 10 hours on days when hostages are being released | The Hamas revision removes the Israeli security checks for movement of Gazans back to the north of the enclave. |
Second Stage Release of remaining living male hostages | Second Stage The Hamas proposal also does not indicate how many “Palestinian” security prisoners it wants to be released during this second phase of the deal, but demands that an agreement be reached on that issue in the midst of the first phase, before all the first-phase hostages are freed. |
There are, of course, other terms in the Israeli proposal and the Hamas counter-offer that are not included in the above list. But, it is clear that the changes which Hamas declared to be minimal are, in fact, substantial. Israel still does not know how many hostages are still alive or who they are. There is reasonable speculation that Hamas is holding the dead bodies of dozens of those who were taken hostage. The efforts at negotiation are aimed to release hostages who are alive and if Hamas can return mostly corpses, Israel will be in no better position after the first stage is completed than it was before that stage will begin. The change inserted by Hamas to the Israeli proposal is, or at least should be, a non-starter.
Additionally, Hamas insists on the parties reaching an agreement on a permanent ceasefire “before” all of the hostages are released. This flies in the face of Israel’s repeated assertion that it would not agree to a deal to includes a permanent ceasefire, and that the military campaign would continue after any hostage release deal is concluded, so that it would complete the two declared goals of the war: return of the hostages and the elimination of Hamas’s capability to be a threat to Israel. Hamas’s demand for a 12-week ceasefire, instead of the 6 weeks that was originally agreed upon is, essentially, a condition for a permanent ceasefire, that must be agreed upon before the terrorist organization would be willing to release the remaining, live male hostages.
Moreover, the release of prisoners who were originally released under the Shalit deal and then re-arrested serves a two-fold purpose: most of those prisoners were serving time in Israeli prisons together with Yahya Sinwar and they developed friendships. So, for Sinwar, theire release is “personal”. But, beyond that, releasing those prisoners has serious political significance within the “Palestinian” community. The “Palestinian” Authority, which was removed from leadership in the Gaza Strip after Hamas rose to power in 2007, has been unable to affect the release of security prisoners. The release of those prisoners through the actions of Hamas would confirm, once and for all, that Hamas holds the “power”, not only in the Gaza Strip, but in the “Palestinian” community as a whole. The “Palestinian” Authority, which is barely able to maintain control over those in Judea and Samaria (the “West Bank”), would be further weakened and “lose face” throughout the entire Arab world.
The slower pace of the release of hostages, as demanded by Hamas, combined with its demand that Israel would have no veto over the Hamas list of “Palestinian” security prisoners to be released, poses a dangerous situation for Israel. Realistically, some of the worst mass murderers now serving one or more life sentences in Israel could be released before many hostages would be released. Once Hamas accomplishes that aspect of its goals, it would be a small matter for it to once again breach the agreement, leaving most of the hostages in captivity, while achieving “face” within the Arab world, at Israel’s expense and considerable embarrassment. This would have disastrous consequences, particularly at a time when Israel is fighting on seven fronts. If even there was a time when Israel needs wisdom and boldness, this is that time.
As of yesterday, 10th May, the negotiations for the release of hostages continued to be stalled. But, today, Israel allegedly said that “the negotiations have not reached a dead-end…[and would continue only] “if there are answers from Hamas that we can work with.” The intense Gaza war continues despite efforts to resume the negotiations.
In brief:
This has been a packed week, almost all of which has been problematic for Israel. It would be difficult to describe at length all of the events, so only highlights of some of them will be mentioned.
While continuing to fight in Rafiah (Rafah), the IDF needs to return to some of the areas in the Gaza Strip that were previously “cleared” of Hamas control, as Hamas operatives managed to reorganize in those areas.
For the third time in the last month, Hamas released another propaganda video, this time of 51-year-old Nadav Popplewell, who was abducted from Kibbutz Nirim on October 7th. His brother was killed the same day and his mother was taken hostage and released in the first hostage deal. The video shows him with a black eye and, clearly, reading a script. It is not known when the video was taken.
The United States threatened to halt a shipment of military supplies to Israel intended for the fighting in Gaza, if the IDF pursues major military action against Hamas in Rafiah (Rafah). And a weapons shipment was held up. Notwithstanding this threat, P.M. Netanyahu said that Israel would “stand alone”, if necessary, and fight with its “fingernails” in pursuing Hamas. For the time being, the U.S. is continuing to send weapons.
Four members of the IDF were killed by an explosive device in Gaza City, all 19-years old. One of them, Daniel Levy (photo, bottom left), is the only son of a close friend of my sister-in-law. May all of their memories be blessed!
The United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a resolution to upgrade the status of the “Palestinian” delegation, recognizing the “Palestinians” as qualified to join as a member state. The absolute absurdity of this decision is beyond description. A people group with no central government, no separate history as a people, no separate language and no territory that it controls, is being recognized as a “State” for possible future membership as a “nation state”. Israeli Ambassador Gilad Erdan strongly attacked the U.N.’s action, as he physically shredded the U.N. Charter in front of the General Assembly, saying that [this day] “will go down infamy and I want the world to remember when they shredded the UN Charter to advance a Nazi regime into the UN’s ranks.”
South Africa is fixated on having the International Court of [In]justice rule against Israel, as it petitioned the court for an order instructing “the state of Israel [to] immediately withdraw and cease its military offensive in the Rafah governorate”. It also asked to Court to direct Israel to allow various individuals and organizations to check on the situation.
The war with Hezbollah is heating up and the missiles from Hezbollah are burning up parts of northern Israel. One Israeli think tank estimates that Hezbollah’s arsenal has increased to “about 250,000 different munitions [which] missiles are often launched from underground and camouflaged launch pits.” And, that even with a ceasefire, we will have an outright war with Hezbollah before too much longer.
Israel’s performance in the Eurovision Song Contest brought us into the Grand Finals tonight, in Malmo, Sweden. Israel’s participation has not been without major challenges, opposition and threats. There will be very tight security around the event this evening, as some 20,000 demonstrators are expected to protest Israel’s participation. Despite all of the antisemitism and anti-Israel rhetoric, Israel hasn’t backed down. May the performance of Eden Golan receive favor in the eyes and ears of the audiences and voters and cause the mouths of all of the protesters to be silenced!
Finally, tomorrow night (Sunday) begins Israel’s Memorial Day for our fallen soldiers and victims of war and terrorism. We are adding close to 1,600 new names to the list over last year’s figures. The end of that day of remembrance and mourning will be immediately followed by Israel’s 76th Day of Independence. The celebrations of the for Independence Day will be considerably muted and diminished in light of the present war. But, we must proclaim our independence to the world and not allow the enemies of our nation to silence us. God put us here and God will keep us here! May it be that our leaders would understand that, and that the nation would put its trust in Him, and not in ourselves.
The Dry Bones Blog – 9 May, 2024
‘See, I have placed the land before you; go in and possess the land which the LORD swore to give to your fathers, to Abraham, to Isaac, and to Jacob, to them and their descendants after them.’ (Deuteronomy 1:8)
With that, may you all have a safe, healthy and blessed week.
And remember: bless, be bless and be a blessing.
Marvin