One could easily say that this past week was truly a difficult one. But, as we look back over it, we see that we made it through and are pressing on. 

As everyone knows by now, during the early morning hours between Saturday night and Sunday of last week, Iran launched hundreds of missiles towards Israel. The numbers vary, but it is conceded at the very least, there were 320 missiles. Some reports indicated 350. While others indicated at least another 100-150 were launched, but never made it outside of Iran. On the Israeli side, it was aerial warfare with Israel achieving a resounding success rating of 99%. Some were quick to say that Iran’s unsuccessful efforts to exact vengeance on Israel for the killing of a very senior member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard was attributable to Israel’s military prowess. Others said that training and coordinated efforts from different countries contributed to Israel’s successful aerial defense. No matter how one wants to look at it, a miracle happened here a week ago.

When the aerial warfare was over and the world was in shock over Israel’s military and technical success – with the help of a few countries, rumors began to circulate that the U.S. “negotiated” the scale of Iran’s attack upon Israel. Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, during an interview that took place on April 15th on the New York City-based radio show, “Sid & Friends in the Morning”, responded to the comment by Sid Rosenberg, the program’s host, who said that he believed President Biden was “behind the whole thing”. Friedman stated: “I was kind of skeptical, but as the stories are coming out … Look, if this ends up being true, this will be an absolute outrage and a scandal the likes of which I haven’t seen before.” Here, at minutes 5:20 – 7:00. John Kirby, the U.S. National Security Council Spokesman, said, in part: “I’ve also seen this speculation about messages passed back and forth and warnings…We did receive messages from Iran. And they received messages from us, too. But there was never any message to us or to anyone else on the timeframe, the targets, or the type of response.” (my emphasis) So, was it “speculation”, or was it fact?

According to Reuters, the planned Iranian attack was discussed between official representatives of the U.S. and Iran, through the intermediary of the Foreign Minister of Turkey, Hakan Fidan. The unnamed, Turkish diplomatic source that conveyed the above information, said that in a meeting between Fidan and U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, “Iran informed us in advance of what would happen. Possible developments also came up during the meeting with Blinken, and they (the U.S.) conveyed to Iran through us that this reaction must be within certain limits.” (my emphasis) 

On the Friday before the attack, President Biden said that he expected Iran to attack Israel “sooner, rather than later” but warned Iran not to attack Israel, with the simple message, “Don’t”, while underscoring America’s commitment to defend Israel. In light of these conflicting reports, what are we to believe? It’s obvious that “Don’t” was not a real threat to the Iranians. Instead, the message that Iran apparently walked away with was that its “reaction must be within certain limits”. Were those “limits” conveyed? Was the message understood? A day and a half after President Biden said “Don’t”, the Iranians “did”.

Three days ago, on April 18th, during an interview with Biden, he made what appears to be a geographical blunder, while responding to a question about how he planned to regain pro-“Palestinian” voter support, in light of the Israel-Hamas war. His response was that he was meeting with them, “that we have to vastly increase the amount of food, water, healthcare going into Gaza.” But, then he added: “And I made it clear to Israelis – don’t move on Haifa. And he immediately went on to say, “It’s just not … I mean, anyway, I just, look what we did recently when Israel was attacked.” See here.

It’s obvious that there was a mistake in his statement. Haifa is Israel’s third largest city. He certainly couldn’t mean that Israel should refrain from attacking its own city. Almost all of the media jumped on his case, ridiculing his “faux pas” and claimed that what he really meant was not Haifa, but Rafah (“Rafiah”), which is the last base of operations of the four remaining Hamas battalions. Some described the error as “seriously embarrassing”, while others said that it was a sign of “cognitive decline”, which, of course, was denied by the White House.

But, if we take Biden’s statements together – “Don’t”, “Don’t move on Haifa”, “look what we did…when Israel was attacked”, and then link them to the instruction to Iran that its reaction against Israel must be within certain limits, then maybe, in Biden’s mind, he jumped to the thought that he gave Iran instructions not move on Haifa. Is this a possible understanding of all of the statements and actions attributable to the U.S. and the President during the last week and a half?

Look at the map that was attached to the last post and is re-inserted here. It shows the areas of air-raid warnings that were triggered during Iran’s missile attack on Israel (displayed in red). 

Take note that Haifa (in the northwest along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea) not only was not attacked (for which we are exceedingly thankful), but there wasn’t even a single siren that was triggered. For those familiar with the area, it immediately becomes clear that Haifa is a militarily strategic location. Yet, it was not targeted, not by Iran and not by the Hezbollah. That would add credence to the claim that the U.S. gave a limited “green light” to Iran to attack Israel, but not to go after a strategic target that would trigger a major response and cause the entire Middle East to become engulfed in flames. Just thoughts. But, given what we do know, is it possible?  

Following the Iranian missile strike against Israel, the question that kept floating around international circles was whether Israel would respond militarily. Israel was strongly encouraged to just “take the hit” and not retaliate. Then, the claim was widely circulated that Israel would not attack Iran, in exchange for receiving “permission” to go against Hamas in Rafah (Rafiah). Arguments for and against both propositions were everywhere, in the halls of government, as well as on the streets of Israel. Everyone had an opinion on the matter. But, on Friday morning, the question was resolved. An air base in Iran was attacked and radar installations were destroyed. The attack was precise and limited. Israel remained silent, while Iran tried to downplay the attack, even claiming that the attack was by drones from inside the country. Most official reports inside Iran denied that there was serious damage, while others did not mention Israel at all. Like almost everything else that has taken place here in recent days, the extent of the damage caused to Iran varied, according to the source of the information. But, we need to remember that only the side being attacked, as well as the side doing the attacking, know exactly what was attacked and the damage that was caused. Everything else is cheap speculation.

Still, Israeli silence spoke volumes. As expected, that silence was meant to be broken, and it was. 

As The Times of Israel pointed out: “It’s important Iran understands that when it acts against us, we have the ability to strike any point and we can do enormous damage – we have a capable air force and the US on our side,” former national security adviser Eyal Hulata told Army Radio…The Israeli response was thought to have been tempered by international pressure to make sure that the reply did not further escalate tensions… ‘Nobody wants war with Iran right now,’ Netanyahu confidant Natan Eshel was quoted saying by journalist Ben Caspit. ‘We proved to them that we can infiltrate and strike within their borders and they weren’t able to inside ours. The messages are more important than the grandstanding. We currently have more important tasks both in Gaza and Lebanon’.” (my emphasis)

Although much of the news this past week related to Iran’s attack and Israel’s retaliation, the war against Hamas continued. Negotiations for the release of the hostages stalled, as Hamas continued to change and increase its terms for a hostage release/prisoner exchange/ceasefire. Its latest terms include a willingness to release up to 20 hostages, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners in Israeli jails and a 6-week ceasefire, that being the time that Hamas says is needed for them to locate the remaining hostages. There are additional terms, but it should be clear to any objective observer that the constant hardening of its conditions reflects an unwillingness to seriously negotiate to bring an end to this war. In reality, it is hoping that international pressure will force Israel to unilaterally end all military action in the Gaza Strip, leaving Hamas intact and still retaining Israeli hostages. At this point, there are “guesstimates” that most of the hostages either died in captivity, or were killed. We STILL don’t know who is alive or the condition of their health.

Finally, tomorrow evening is the begining of Passover. The gathering for the evening meal will include a recitation of the release of the ancient Israelites from slavery in Egypt. Notwithstanding that Passover is an historical milestone for the people of Israel, still, even this is the subject of debate. Some say that we should not celebrate the Feast of Passover and our freedom from slavery, while Hamas is still holding some of our people hostage. Others say that celebrating the Feast is a moral imperative, to show that notwithstanding our adversaries and our circumstances, we remain strong as a people and as a nation. 

In his annual Passover message to the nation, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alluded to the story of Passover, while hinting at the action that will soon take place against Rafah (Rafiah), stating, in part that just as “Pharaoh hardened his heart and refused to allow the Jewish slaves to leave Egypt…[so] Hamas was ‘hardening its heart and refusing to let our people go’…Therefore, we will strike it with additional painful blows – and this will happen soon’.”

May you all have a blessed Passover, with good health and thankfulness. And, despite the difficulties of these days, remember to bless, and you will be blessed to be a blessing.

Marvin