Shalom All,

The thought that is uppermost in the minds of Israelis these last few days is: When and how will Iran attack Israel? This is very surrealistic. An entire nation is waiting for the blaring of sirens signaling a missile attack, reminiscent of the night of Iran’s attack on Israel in mid-April, only this time considerably more severe. 

Iran is committed to attacking Israel. Attempts to talk reason with the Ayatollahs is a waste or time and energy. Their fanatical desire is to remove the “infidel” from an area that was once under control of an Islamic caliphate and to ready the land for the arrival of the Islamic messiah. If the trigger wasn’t the targeted killing of Ismail Haniyeh, it would have been triggered by something else. The big point here is that the senior political representative of Hamas was killed IN TEHRAN, the capital of Iran, right under their noses. Israel’s message was clear; We can reach any of you anywhere! That should have been enough of a deterrent for them to stop and consider the consequences of planning action against Israel. Iran “lost face” – a severe insult to its pride and goals for hegemony, first in the area of the Middle East, and then over the entire non-Islamic world.

In the meantime, Israel is preparing for a multi-front confrontation with Iran and its proxies, the He-Ha-Hu (Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis) puppets, waiting to do the bidding of the one who pulls the financial and military strings. However, unlike the mid-April attack that lit up the skies and lasted for considerably under an hour, the anticipated missile onslaught is expected to continue for days, with one of its goals being to tire us out. Not to be ignored are some players who have been sitting on the sidelines, like Syria, various militia in Iraq and the threats of invasion of Israel from Turkey. 

The United States deployed a dozen warships to our region, and the commander of the U.S. Central Command, General Erik Kurilla, is also here, whose focus is to build a “multilateral defensive alliance” like the one that was formed in April that succeeded to fend off the vast majority of the projectiles launched against Israel from Israel in April.

Israel is considering the possibility of pre-empting Iran and of taking the fight to its terrority first. There is considerable merit to that plan, which would, of necessity, require similar action in Lebanon. Obvious targets would be military, as well as civilian, infrastructures, destroying the ability of the enemy to communicate and to move about. The goal would be to destroy the ability of the enemy to wage war. Expressed differently, Israel’s best defense would be a powerful and devastating offense.

Negotiations are still ongoing for the release of the hostages, while Israel is still in the dark concerning how many of those who were taken captive on October 7th are still alive and who they are. The families and friends of those who were taken hostage need to face the reality that some of their loved ones may never be returned. One of the many tragedies concerning the hostages is the fate of the Bibas family, the father and mother and two children, the oldest of whom turned 5 this week, while the youngest has spent more time as a child in captivity than as a child in freedom. This is simply heart-breaking. But, in this matter as well, Israel is in the dark and has no information concerning the fate of the Bibas family. 

Back to the question in the title – Will Israel pre-empt, or wait for iran and/or the Hezbollah to launch its missiles at Israel? Apparently, the present decision is to wait. In this regard, a few points should be noted:

It would be reasonable to presume that If Israel becomes aware of an immediate intent by Hezbollah to launch missiles, the likelihood is that the IDF would pre-empt the attack and even switch to an offensive mode and strike the launch pads and their operators before the missiles are fired. There is also a second possibility that, simply, we may not have sufficient advance reliable intelligence information to approve of such an operation. It is more reasonable to conclude, however, that conditions are not right to launch a pre-emptive attack in Lebanon at this point. We’re not ranking high on the international scale of countries affirming their support for Israel. And with our hands fairly full in Gaza and the “West Bank”, the upper eschelons appear to opt for a wait and then retaliate mode.

Regarding Iran, however, the consensus that appears to have taken hold is that Israel’s response to an Iranian attack will depend on the intensity of the attack and the extent of the damage, including the number of casualties. On the one hand, it is understandable. Israel is not looking for another full-scale war and certainly not a multi-front frull-scall war. On the other hand, however, Israeli retaliation needs to be accomplished quickly and in a manner that leaves the enemy regretting that it ever chose to pick a fight with Israel.

As things stand, we still don’t know when, how and where the planned coordinated attack will take place. But, we are certain that IT WILL take place and the most likely targets here will be airfields and power stations, the very things that I suggested should be done in Lebanon, if Hezbollah attacks again.

And while we wait … many countries have instructed their ambassadors, embassy personnel and ordinary citizens to leave Israel, Lebanon and Iran. Almost all airline companies have ceased flying to and from Israel. Only El Al is still taking off and landing in Israel at this time. But, then, El Al is probably the only civilian airline in the world that has equipped its entire fleet with flares that can be released to thwart heat-seeking missiles. Still, if an attack occurs, it would be reasonable for transportation officials in Israel to close the skies entirely. This situation has a personal impact upon me, as my wife and I are scheduled to fly out today, Thursday, to points in the U.S. and Canada in connection with a ministry trip. If the skies are closed, obviously we won’t be able to go. And that’s OK. If there is no attack during tonight or in the early morning, we will plan to fly out, as scheduled. But, when the attack happens, our desire would likely be to return back to Israel as quickly as possible. The big question is whether there will be any possibility to do so, if there is no air traffic in or out.

So, for the time being, we too, wait.

While you have the opportunity, remember to bless. You will be blessed in return and enable you to continue to be a blessing. You can’t go wrong with that.

Marvin