Shalom all,

We all need a break from time to time. The pressures in the Middle East, the unending hostage crisis, the continuation of the Gaza War against the Hamas terrorist organization, the increasing missile launches from the Houthis of Yemen and the blaring of air-raid sirens, the internal divisions within Israel, the conflicts between left and right, religious and secular, just to name a few, affect all of us, in Israel as well as abroad. Included in these events are the increasing demonstrations calling upon the government of Israel to “bring the hostages home NOW”. We need to take a step back and try to put all of the pieces together and, sometimes, after we look at the entire picture, we notice that there are a few pieces still missing.

Add to that the events surrounding the recent trip to the Middle East of the President of the United States – a trip that left out a visit to Israel, with whom the U.S. has an “unbreakable bond” of friendship. Deals of different kinds were made with countries that were enemies of Israel, without any input from Israel. Political pundits began to express concern that the “New Middle East”, from America’s political and economic point of view, might not include Israel, who is seeing a few cracks in the bond that was supposed to be unbreakable. Many politicians who have a solid grip on the mentality of the Middle East, believe that the West, represented by the United States, was being played, lulled into a sense of false security with grandiose gifts and empty promises. From Washington’s perch of 9,500 miles from Jerusalem, its clouded vision doesn’t allow it to see that a terrorist who puts on a suit and tie is still a terrorist. But, that’s for another time. 

The big issue of the day, as it was yesterday, and as it was last year and the years before that, is Iran. The United States and Iran had been discussing a renewed “deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Israel has always considered such discussions a play for time on the part of Iran and that the U.S. was being dragged along into what could be the greatest fiasco in history. Iran can signed a thousand deals, but it will still consider the United States as the “big Satan” that needs to be brought under the thumb and rule of Islam.

As reported by most media, the latest round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran in Rome ended without progress. Iran insists on enriching uranium at home, while the U.S. demands a full stop to enrichment. A key U.S. diplomat even left the talks early, signaling deadlock. According to U.S. defense intelligence, Iran could have enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in under a week. That leaves Israel with almost no time to act if it hopes to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. 

At a recent Middle East Forum event in Washington, a simulation of conflict in the Gulf showed just how fast diplomacy can fail and military action can spiral. In the exercise, Iran used talks to stall while advancing its program and triggering a regional crisis.

Israeli leaders and intelligence officials are no longer just preparing quietly—they’re openly getting ready. Top officials flew to Rome to monitor talks firsthand, and U.S. intelligence has picked up signs of Israeli military readiness, including movement of special munitions and completed air force drills. We have learned that when an enemy hates us and says he wants to kill us, we take him seriously. When he has the means to harm us, we also have learned that the best defense is a strong offense.

Amid reports from CNN about Israel’s intentions to strike Iran, the IDF is ramping up preparations for a potential multi-front war, focusing on both home-front readiness and coordination within the General Staff. As part of these preparations, a military exercise was conducted to ensure continuity of operations on the home front, defensive measures, and the protection of critical military infrastructure. 

The IDF Spokesperson announced the completion of the drill, named “Barak Tamir”, that was designed to simulate multi-front war scenarios. According to the statement, the exercise aimed to improve coordination between various military branches and units during emergencies, ensuring a faster and more effective response to evolving threats.

Israel has already acted to reduce threats from Iranian-backed groups. Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal has reportedly been slashed, Hamas is isolated after the Gaza war (although its military wing continues to fight and missiles continue to be launched from Gaza into southern Israel), and Iran’s proxy networks in Syria have been disrupted. One Israeli official noted, “Iran’s regional allies lie in tatters.” Such statements should not be made publicly, if at all. We should be careful not to be proud or to boast about our military achievements. We still have the embarrassment of the intelligence failures that allowed October 7th to happen and have to live with the aftermath of the deadliest and most traumatic attacks in Israel’s history, the failure to bring about the return of all of the hostages who were taken by Hamas, as well as the sprawling anti-semitism that crept out and/or burst out from every nook and cranny following our retaliatory responses.

In light of Israel’s ongoing preparedness, Iran sent a letter to the UN threatening to hide enriched uranium at secret sites if Israel continues to pose a threat. This means Iran might move nuclear materials out of sight from international watchdogs, which should be an alarm not only to the region of the Middle East, but a blaring wake-up call to the rest of the world.

In the above simulation during the Middle East Forum event, China played both sides—supporting Iran while offering Gulf states a security alternative. It also reflects reality: China buys oil from Iran and helps it bypass sanctions. Meanwhile, Russia is supplying Iran with military upgrades and could soon sell it advanced air defenses.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has declared that Iran is “more exposed than ever” to an attack, indicating that Israel should seize the moment. The U.S. is also sending signals—like deploying B-2 bombers and transferring bunker-buster bombs to Israel—showing support while keeping official policy vague.

Israeli intelligence believes Iran is dangerously close to crossing the nuclear threshold. Without a diplomatic breakthrough, Israeli officials are preparing to act alone. Every sign—military, diplomatic, and intelligence—points to a strike happening within days, not weeks. <https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/days-not-weeks-israels-imminent-attack-on-iranian-nuclear-sites>

If Israel does strike, the fallout could be global. Iran has promised a “devastating” response. Missiles could rain on Israeli cities. Iranian forces could retaliate from the locations of its proxies (Lebanon, Syria, Yemen), and beyond. Jewish communities worldwide could be at risk. And if they are at risk, the countries where they reside will be at risk as well.

But from Israel’s perspective, the cost of not acting is even higher: a nuclear-armed Iran that poses an existential threat.

All signs suggest that a major military confrontation is on the horizon. As diplomacy crumbles and Iran nears nuclear capability, Israel may act very soon. What happens next could reshape the Middle East—and test how far the world is willing to go to stop nuclear proliferation.

How can you pray?

For wisdom – for the government of Israel; for wisdom, courage, boldness and precision for the IDF; for a spirit of unity throughout the nation – we are all in this, together; for the families who have lost loved ones in the ongoing Gaza War; for the families who are still waiting for their loved ones to return from captivity, both alive and dead; for the thousands of wounded, whose lives and livelihoods have been upended because of their injuries; for the medical personnel treating the wounded and the hostages who have returned from Hamas captivity; for the inability of Iran to complete its nuclear ambitions.

Thus says the Lord,
Who gives the sun for light by day
And the fixed order of the moon and the stars for light by night,
Who stirs up the sea so that its waves roar;
The Lord of hosts is His name:
“If this fixed order departs
From before Me,” declares the Lord,
“Then the offspring of Israel also will cease
From being a nation before Me forever.” (Jeremiah 31:35-36)

Bless, be blessed and be a blessing – it is a “win win” situation.

Marvin