At first blush, the numbers seem to be lopsided and cannot be true. After all, this was a “deal”, negotiated at length. Or so we are told. But, if we delve into the situation behind the numbers, and examine the factors leading to the “deal”, we walk away shaking our heads in wonderment and questioning how in the world could Israel have agreed to such a “deal”. Don’t get me wrong. I rejoice with all Israel over the return of every hostage. The first two releases of the hostages left many without a dry eye, both here and in nations across the world. But, “Even in laughter the heart may be in pain and the end of joy may be grief.” (Proverbs 14:13).

The numbers in the caption do not tell the entire story, not even a major part of the story. As noted, it is only Stage One of the agreement. There is a Stage Two, as well as a Stage Three.

In order to grasp the difficulty of justifying the agreement signed between Israel and Hamas, we need simply to remember the unspeakable savagery and horrors perpetrated by Hamas, “Palestinian” Islamic Jihad and other terrorists, both adults and minors, who invaded both the communities in the Gaza Envelope on October 7, 2023, as well as an outdoor festival taking place in the same region. Rape, dismemberment, burning, murder, mayhem and destruction were carried out by thousands of blood-thirsty Gazans – call them by whatever name you want. As if this were not enough, the barbaric multitudes also abducted over 250 men, women and children, young and old, healthy and sick, some of whom were already killed, but most of whom were alive and some of whom were wounded. Most of the world originally joined Israel and reacted with shock and horror. But, shortly thereafter, the focus changed.

A visit from the former United States Secretary of State, followed by an historic visit by the then U.S. President, resulted in changing Israel’s original plans for conducting the war that was supposed to result in eliminating Hamas and returning the hostages. Originally, the plan was for Israel to conduct a siege of Gaza – no one and nothing in and no one and nothing out, no water, no electricity, no supplies. It wouldn’t have taken long before white flags would have appeared in Gaza and Israel’s goals would have been achieved with minimal loss of life. We were told that we have an “unbreakable bond” that was repeated over and over again by what should have been the strongest nation in the world. What we weren’t told was that friendship and support sometimes comes with a price – for example, telling us what our priorities should be in fighting terrorism in urban warfare, that was unlike any other modern warfare fought by enlightened, democratic countries.

It didn’t take long when the pressure began to be applied. The siege couldn’t take place, as it was to be replaced by humanitarian aid to the population in Gaza – a population that put Hamas in power and cheered with ecstasy as hostages from Israel were brought into their midst. And like fire that never says “enough”, the demand was for Israel to allow more and more humanitarian aid supplies into Gaza. It was quickly discovered, however, that the supplies were grabbed by Hamas and were sold by them to the people of Gaza for exorbitant prices. 

Missiles from the 3-H Club of Terrorism (Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis) were launched into Israel and, eventually, Israel was attacked by their puppeteer, Iran. Within a short period of time, Israel found itself fighting on seven different fronts, while the demand to continue to allow the supply of humanitarian aid was not diminished. Israel re-evaluated its strategy and methodically pursued its goals against Hamas, while the latter inflated the casualty figures, which were blindly accepted by most of the world without verification. Anti-Israel sentiment grew, as monkey-see, monkey-do governments blamed Israel for the high-death toll in Gaza, ignoring that Israel warned the population to get out of harm’s way and that Hamas was using civilians as human shields. The atrocities of October 7th were quickly forgotten and, in some instances, the undeniable, documented facts of Hamas barbarism were even denied. 

While the fighting was going on, efforts were made to “negotiate” the release of the hostages. An agreement was reached and about forty percent of the hostages were released in November, 2023, in exchange for a brief moratorium in the fighting and the release of several hundred “Palestinian” prisoners being held in Israeli prisons. Memories were refreshed over the disastrous deal that was made for the return of one Israeli soldier in exchange for a thousand prisoners, a deal that included the release of Yahya Sinwar, one of the masterminds of the events of October 7th. Hamas breached the deal and the release of hostages ended, resulting in a renewal of fighting on December 1st.

But there were continued efforts, on and off, and the negotiations were eventually renewed. Terms were discussed, agreed upon, and then changed. One proposal put forth in May, 2024, looked as though it would succeed. But, the deal collapsed. Throughout almost the entire course of the war, there were additional pressures placed upon the government of Israel to agree to a deal, seemingly at any price, so that the hostages would be released. Israel steadfastly refused to agree to what would not be in the best interests of the nation as a whole. And along the way, adding insult to injury, some anti-Israel governments decided to accuse Israel of genocide in the International Criminal Court. 

As the United Nations and various member states turned more and more against Israel, very few fingers were pointed towards Hamas, the terrorist organization that truly tried to carry out genocide against israel. While a substantial part of its fighting forces were killed, Hamas continued to refuse to come to terms with Israel for the release of the hostages, hoping that at some point, the increasing international condemnation of Israel would force us to cease our military activity against Hamas. This way, the organization would not have to agree to anything, while keeping the hostages, remaining in power and proclaiming victory over Israel.

Time after time, negotiations were almost finalized, but they always fell through due to demands for changes and disagreements over terminology. Then the U.S. elections were held and Donald Trump was re-elected as President. Threats were made that there would be “all hell to pay” if the hostages were not released by the time he was sworn into office. That threat seemed to trickle with each passing day.

The Dry Bones Blog – 16 January, 2025

Trump sent his Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, to join the negotiations that were taking place in Doha, Qatar. Then he came to Israel and met with Israeli Primer Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. According to an article appearing in The Times of Israel:

“A ‘tense’ weekend meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and incoming Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff led to a breakthrough in the hostage negotiations, with the top aide to US President-elect Donald Trump doing more to sway the premier in a single sit-down than outgoing President Joe Biden did all year, two Arab officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday. (my emphasis)

“Witkoff has been in Doha for the past week to take part in the hostage negotiations, as mediators try to secure a deal before Trump’s January 20 inauguration. On Saturday, Witkoff flew to Israel for a meeting with Netanyahu at the premier’s Jerusalem office.

“During the meeting, Witkoff urged Netanyahu to accept key compromises necessary for an agreement, the two Arab officials on Monday told The Times of Israel on condition of anonymity. Neither Witkoff nor Netanyahu’s office responded to requests for comment.” (my emphasis)

One would naturally have to ask why Netanyahu would agree to accept “key compromises” after rejecting them for so long? How was he “urged” by Witkoff to agree in “a single sit-down” to what he rejected to do for an entire year when Biden was President? Why was the meeting between Netanyahu and Witkoff described as “tense”? Witkoff is a businessman, as is his boss, the new U.S. President. As such, his primary interest was making a deal and, apparently, enough pressure was applied to Netanyahu to get him to abandon the position that he maintained throughout the entire course of the war. Whatever that pressure (or threat) was, it was sufficient to bring about the desired result – hostage release, prisoner release, cease fire and, potentially, worse.

It needs to be remembered that Netanyahu had always maintained that the fighting in Gaza would not end until Hamas no longer was a military threat to Israel. For its part, the terrorist organizaton had always insisted that any hostage-release deal must include a permanent ceasefire and Israel’s total withdrawal from Gaza, which terms were refused by Israel. While there were other issues, these were the primary ones and, despite more than a year of back and forth haggling, after a brief, face-to-face meeting between Netanyahu and Witkoff, suddenly there was a readiness to “close the deal”. 

The terms of the deal are actually laid out in two separate documents. The provisions of the first agreement contains the general principles and can be found here, while the terms of the second (actually an appendix to the first agreement) can be seen here. These terms were not agreed to eight months ago, but, suddenly, they are revived and became “acceptable” by Israel.

It is not necessary for the cease-fire agreement and the appendix to the agreement to be explained by a lawyer. The essence of the “deal” jumps out from the written words.

Stage One (to last 6 weeks): 33 hostages are to be released; temporary cessation of military operations in the Gaza Strip; removal of Israeli troops from key areas in Gaza; temporary cessation of aerial and military surveillance of movement in Gaza on days when hostages and prisoners will be released; return of displaced Gazans “(without carryiing arms while returning– the Appendix includes [in paragraph 7 – “without carrying arms and without inspection” – my emphasis)”; increased humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip; release of prisoners in Israeli jails (on a ratio of 1 civilian hostage for 30 prisoners); release of prisoners (on a ratio of 1 Israeli female soldier for 50 prisoners); “In the event that the number of living Israeli hostages to be released during this stage does not reach 33, the difference will be completed through the release of a corresponding number of human remains from the same categories. In exchange, Israel will release all women and children (under 19 years who are not militants) who were detained from the Gaza Strip after 7 October 2023 and this will be done on Week 6.”; released prisoners “will not be required to sign any document as a condition to their release”.

Stage Two (to last 6 weeks): Announcement of the permanent end to the fighting before additional exchange of hostages and prisoners and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops.

Stage Three (to last 6 weeks): Exchange of “all human remains with the two sides after locating and identifying them“. (my emphasis) Reconstruction of Gaza over 3-5 years under the supervision of Egypt, Qatar and other countries and organizations, including the U.N.; opening all “border crossings, facilitating movement of people and transfer of goods.”

This deal is not new. It was, in essence, considered back in May, 2024. But, the 3 stages are actually 3 separate deals, each of which is subject to separate negotiation. The first stage of the hostage release – prisoner release is bad enough. But, whene the different stages are looked at as a whole (even though it is difficult to believe that Hamas will live up to its commitments under Stage One and we can actually move on to Stage Two), we come to the conclusion that we fought a war for 15 months and at the end of the day, Israel will totally withdraw from the Gaza Strip, Hamas will remain in control, armed, ready to rebuild its military and tunnel infrastructure and planning its further attacks upon Israel. 

The lessons of October 7th have either not been learned, or they have been totally ignored. Israel was determined not to allow terrorism to win, but that determination was not followed through to the end. We will remain scarred from the wounds of October 7th. The Biden administration and, potentially, the Trump administration, have coerced Israel into making a disastrous deal, which, considering the nature of the terrorist beast, will never be fully complied with by Hamas. Hostages, some alive and some dead, will not be returned. The West bet its money on the wrong horse. It needed to stand behind Israel, fully, and allow Israel to defeat Hamas, fully and quickly. Only then would other terrorist organizations think twice about committing acts of terror. Until then, terrorists only celebrate the claimed defeat of Israel and laugh at the West, while smiling behind their masks at the media.

The Dry Bones Blog – 26 January, 2025

We should not be deceived over the return of some of the hostages. We all genuinely rejoice with them and their families. But, the first releases did not release some of the children and civilians who were taken hostage. Nor did Israel get the promised list of those who are alive and were to be released in the first stage of the deal. The failure to eliminate Hamas is an unspoken invitation to abduct more Israelis, not only from across the reconstructed border fence along the Gaza Envelope, but wherever they may be found. If the U.S. and other democratic countries hail the hostage-prisoner exchange agreement, they are most to be pitied as being unable, or worse, unwilling, to see or to understand the nature of Islamic Jihad, which is a quest for world domination. The wilful ignorance of the West is a sign of weakness and constitutes an open invitation not only for international terrorism, but for home-grown terrorism. There are some in the new U.S. administration that understand the nature of the beast and are unabashedly willing to stand behind Israel in its defense against terrorism. But, in that new administration, the decisions will come from the head, not from the representatives.

Hamas “read” the attitudes of the nations, including the United States, regarding Israel’s war against terrorism. And the nations continued in their failure to grasp the reality behind the October 7th invasion and the relentless attempts to destroy Israel. We were demonized, while Hamas, the real demon, succeeded, at least to a degree, to ride the wave of anti-Israel sentiment. As I have repeatedly stated, in this area of the world, if one does not clearly lose a war, he is treated as having won. 

We fought a justified war and it was morally right for us to do so. And, we may soon continue the fighting, as Hamas remains true to its colors and is breaching its commitments once again even as this post is being written. But, we don’t need only a moral victory, we need a military one as well. Leaving Hamas in control of the Gaza Strip as a military power will be acknowledged by many as a Hamas victory. It will encourage other terrorist organizations to pursue their aims not only against Israel. The risk of terrorism has now increased significantly to all of Western society as it has been demonstrated that terrorism can win. Hezbollah will consider its set-backs as temporary – that being the nature of Hudna (a temporary break in warfare). The Houthis will only gain momentum. Revolts in Judea and Samaria will continue to take immediate, military center stage. Hamas will continue its holy war, Jihad, against Israel. And Iran will laugh, while continuing to spread its tentacles across the landscape of the Middle East and reaching as far as the Americas, as it coasts casually forward to becoming a nuclear-terrorist threat, while everyone in the world sleeps, except Israel. 

Irrespective of what the world may say or do, whether all of the hostages are returned or not, whether the cease fire will continue or be renewed, there is another plan that will be carried out. 

“I know that everything God does will remain forever; there is nothing to add to it and there is nothing to take from it, for God has so worked that men should fear Him.” (Ecclesiastes 3:14)

“Thus says the LORD, Who gives the sun for light by day And the fixed order of the moon and the stars for light by night, Who stirs up the sea so that its waves roar; The LORD of hosts is His name: ‘If this fixed order departs From before Me,’ declares the LORD, ‘Then the offspring of Israel also will cease From being a nation before Me forever’.” (Jeremiah 31:35-36)

We are at the beginning of a new civil year, with new opportunities to be thankful. Let’s make every effort to take full advantage of those opportunities.

Bless, be blessed and be a blessing.

Marvin