Shalom all,

Israel enters the week of Rosh Hashanah – the Biblical Feast of Trumpets – with the country in a heightened state of military readiness. The immediate concern is not that an Iranian attack is certain, but that the combination of renewed U.S.-Iran fighting, explicit Iranian threats, activity by Iran’s regional proxies and the approaching Jewish holidays creates a potentially dangerous period.

At the same time, Israel’s political map is shifting. Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael – “People of Israel” party continues to make waves on the right, while the October 27 election approaches. The “Winter effect” is now more than a political curiosity: it may influence the eventual composition of the next government.

Israel is preparing for a possible surprise attack. The clearest indication of the country’s current state of readiness came today, Sunday, September 6th, when IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir ordered a surprise military exercise code-named “Dawn 2.0.”

The exercise is testing the readiness of the IDF’s senior headquarters and command centers for a “sudden multifront scenario.” Commanders have been called up, forces mobilized and reserve capabilities assessed. The military says Israelis will notice increased movements of troops and aircraft, but emphasized that the exercise itself does not reflect an immediate security incident.

More revealingly, Zamir said that the IDF is in a “tense and volatile period across all sectors” and that the army’s baseline posture is readiness for a surprise attack. The exercise is specifically part of preparations for the coming holiday period. That is an important distinction. Israel is not publicly announcing that war is imminent. It is saying that the military is preparing on the assumption that an enemy could attempt to exploit a moment of distraction or vulnerability. 

And there are good reasons for that caution. The wider U.S.-Iran confrontation escalated again over the weekend. On Sunday, Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, warned that any future military aggression against Iran would receive a swift and painful response. Reuters reported that the conflict remains unresolved after the collapse of the June ceasefire, with Iranian and American military actions continuing. And, of course, Iran’s threats are against Israel!

Although much of the immediate fighting has involved American forces, Israel does not regard itself as a spectator. Iran has already warned Washington that it would respond forcefully to Israeli military action against Hezbollah’s positions in southern Lebanon. The warning came as Israel was operating against Hezbollah’s infrastructure on the strategically important Ali al-Taher ridge.

There is another disturbing element. Israeli intelligence reporting cited by the Jerusalem Post indicates concern that Iran is attempting to rebuild coordination among its regional proxies – including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq – with the possibility of a coordinated, multi-front attack against Israel. That is precisely the kind of scenario that “Dawn 2.0” is designed to test.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz has been equally explicit. He has said that Israel is prepared to respond “with great force” if Iran attacks during the High Holy Day period. He has also warned that an Iranian attack could free Israel from previous restraints in selecting its targets, including Iranian energy infrastructure.

The message from Jerusalem, therefore, is straightforward: Israel does not want another war with Iran, but it is preparing as though one could begin.

Rosh Hashanah arrives at an unusually tense moment. This coming Friday evening, September 11th, Jews around the world will begin Rosh Hashanah, the Biblical Feast of Trumpets, which marks the Jewish New Year. The holiday begins a ten-day period leading to Yom Kippur and traditionally carries themes of remembrance, judgment, prayer, repentance and charitable works.

For Israel, this year’s holiday season carries an additional security dimension. The National Security Council warned today that Iran and its proxies remain the leading global terrorist threat to Israelis and Jews, particularly as the High Holy Days approach. The warning applies not only to Israel but also to Israelis and Jewish communities overseas.

And, significantly, the third anniversary of October 7th is also approaching. Israeli officials, therefore, see the coming weeks as a particularly sensitive period.

There is something sobering about the timing. Israel will celebrate the beginning of a new year while its military is explicitly preparing for the possibility of a surprise attack on multiple fronts.

The northern front is heating up again. The concern is not theoretical.

On Friday, Hezbollah launched a drone toward Israeli troops in southern Lebanon. Israel responded with strikes against what it described as Hezbollah targets. The strikes reportedly killed at least three people and wounded 23.

Israel had already announced that it had cleared Hezbollah fighters from tunnels beneath the Ali al-Taher ridge, a strategically important position in southern Lebanon. The ridge has become one of the most significant flashpoints since the U.S.-brokered ceasefire came into effect.

The combination of Israeli military activity, Hezbollah resistance and the Iranian warning creates a potentially dangerous chain reaction. Israel’s basic calculation remains the same as it has been since October 7th: no hostile organization can be allowed to establish an October 7-style military threat immediately across an Israeli border.

But enforcing that principle means Israel remains militarily committed in Lebanon. The government is therefore simultaneously fighting and negotiating. Israel released five Lebanese detainees this week as part of U.S.-brokered confidence-building efforts, while discussions continue concerning the recovery of the remains of Jewish figures killed in Lebanon decades ago.

Judea and Samraria (“the West Bank”) is another front requiring increased readiness. The IDF has also reinforced forces in Judea and Samaria as tensions rise. On Saturday, U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee visited an area in Samaria, where he met Arab Americans and called for severe consequences against violent Israeli settlers.

The visit illustrates the delicate balance Israel faces. From a security perspective, the IDF wants to prevent another organized attack. At the same time, Washington is increasingly concerned about violence by extremist settlers and the consequences for Israeli-American relations.

Israel cannot afford to treat the Iranian, Lebanese, Gazan and Judean-Samaritan arenas as completely separate. All theatres are connected and events in one area can rapidly influence the others.

And then there is Ofer Winter. The political “Winter effect” has continued to develop since last week. 

Former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, commander of the Givati Brigade during his military career, launched Amcha Yisrael – “People of Israel” political party on August 25th. The party’s slate deliberately combines figures from different parts of Israeli society, including Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad and representatives of communities affected by October 7.

Winter has made clear that he remains within the right-wing camp and that, if elected, his party would recommend Benjamin Netanyahu for prime minister. But his independence is precisely what makes him significant.

This week Winter said that he would only join a government that passes a universal military-draft law before the coalition is formed. He has also rejected pressure to simply merge with established political figures.

Then, on Saturday night, a new controversy emerged. A television report claimed that shortly after October 7th, Winter had warned Netanyahu that a ground offensive into Gaza could result in the deaths of 15,000 IDF soldiers and thousands of kidnappings. Winter has denied the report.

That story is politically significant precisely because Winter is now campaigning as a security figure.

The question is no longer simply whether Winter can win seats. It is whether his emergence represents something broader: a demand for different leadership from within Israel’s nationalist-security camp itself.

Recent polls have varied dramatically, with Winter’s party ranging from below the electoral threshold to several seats. One recent survey put the competing Netanyahu and opposition blocs at 53 seats each, with neither close to the 61 required for a majority.

THAT is the Winter effect.

Israel is preparing for war while preparing for an election.

Perhaps the most striking feature of the present moment is that Israel is simultaneously engaged in two different kinds of preparation.

The IDF is preparing for a surprise multifront war and the political parties are preparing for an election that could fundamentally redraw the political map.

And Rosh Hashanah sits between the two.

Today, the government also announced an expansion of the Shield of the North fortification program, extending assistance to 89 communities within nine kilometers of the Lebanese border. More than 15,000 new protected rooms are planned, together with billions of Shekels for reinforcing existing apartments.

That is more than an infrastructure program. It is an acknowledgment that Israel’s concept of national security now includes preparing civilians for the possibility that the next war will not remain confined to one front.

Israel enters the Feast of Trumpets, therefore, in a posture that might best be described as vigilant rather than panicked.

The country is not being told that war is inevitable. But its military leadership is openly preparing for surprise attack. Iran is threatening further retaliation, Hezbollah remains active, and Israel’s intelligence community is watching for attempts to reconnect Iran’s regional proxy network.

At the same time, the political system is changing beneath the surface.

The coming weeks will determine whether Israel can maintain deterrence without being dragged into another regional war – and whether voters believe the leadership that brought the country through the existing wars is the leadership they want for the next chapter.

Rosh Hashanah is traditionally a time to remember, to examine the past and to look toward the year ahead. For Israel, that symbolism could hardly be more appropriate this year. The two themes are unexpectedly appropriate together: personal reflection on our behavior, national reflection on what has happened, and a decision about what comes next.

A note in closing: As Israel prepares for Rosh Hashanah, the Feast of Trumpets, the country is reminded once again of the tension between human responsibility and divine sovereignty. Israel must watch, prepare and defend itself. Scripture reminds us:

“Unless the Lord guards the city, the watchman keeps awake in vain.” (Psalm 127:1)

As the shofar sounds and a new year begins, Israel enters it watchful, prepared and uncertain of what lies ahead – but not without hope.

Bless, be blessed and be a blessing.

Have a great week!

Marvin